Sowing the seeds...
This week, Fodder kicks off with Dr Bob Gay giving his unique insider's view of the Fed's recent meeting in Jackson Hole, warning that central banks are now feeding the debt beast rather than taming it, thereby sowing the seeds of the next crisis. However, Professor of Economics at Berkeley, J. Bradford DeLong, notes that, on average, material wellbeing triples every 50 years or so and there's no reasonable basis to assume this won't continue. Michael Kitces offers a pithy (6-minute) video insight into a barbell approach to building portfolios to cope with investors' long and short-term needs. Michael Furey shows that moving beyond the usual simple, time-based fund performance measures reveals a wealth of more useful information about funds. And lastly, we showcase our pick of the Faculty papers from our recent Conference - UBS Asset Management's Jeff Grow on the case for sticking with fixed interest.
All the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Mark your diary now for Symposium 2017 (16-17 May)

LATEST...

Markets
Monetary reform - looking in the wrong places
Zero and especially negative nominal interest rates are a fool's game. We are entering the late phase of an ageing expansion when asset price bubbles and poor credit decisions sow the seeds of the next crisis.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | Opinion

Markets
The economic trend is our friend
Economic growth since 2008 has been profoundly disappointing and pessimism understandably comes easy these days – perhaps too easy. If we look at global economic growth over the next 30 to 60 years, the picture looks much brighter.
J. Bradford DeLong, University of California | White Paper

Strategy
Flexibility is key to goals-based strategies
Individuals underestimate the degree to which their lives will change over the long-term, so how can practitioners build portfolios which are likely to meet their clients' future needs?
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group | Opinion

Investing
Look for the signal within the noise
Using a simple case study, this paper illustrates an approach to cutting through fund performance "noise" to find the signal - the bigger picture investment view that enables us to construct better investment portfolios.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | Research

Markets/Investing
Spurn the supernova and fight the fear of fixed income
Bond market Cassandras proclaim the formation of a supernova, warning of the investment perils. It's time to spurn this talk, and stick with the core, defensive anchor provided by global fixed income.
Jeff Grow, UBS Asset Management | White Paper

Bakers dozen
Perhaps I'm missing something... Firstly, isn't the constant price series rebased each year as a reasonable response to the distortions you refer to?
Stephen Romic, DFS Advisory Services | Comment

Bakers dozens
This is not really a matter of distortions, just different measurements capturing different effects. As for the new bakers production...all I can say is good try!
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Comment

RECENTLY...

Philosophy/Markets/Strategy/Investing/Finology
Backgrounder: The long and short of it
Irrespective of your personal perspectives on time, managing the fundamental frictions between the long- and short-term is an important challenge. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates in relation to long- and short-term thinking, as they pertain to investment and markets.
PortfolioConstruction Forum | White Paper

Philosophy/Markets/Strategies/Investing/Finology
Conference 2016 - The long and short of it - key takeouts
Conference 2016 delivered 50+ high conviction ideas on how to manage the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives. Here are the key takeouts.
Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Key takeouts

Philosophy
Engaging investors' long-term view is our moral duty
By encouraging investors to control their emotions and by choosing the right funds, we can help them meet their long-term needs.
Don Phillips, Morningstar | Opinion

Philosophy/Strategies
Commitment brings the best out of liquid alpha
It remains possible to generate alpha from liquid strategies but investors must shift their focus away from short-term performance, and towards longer-term measurements of success.
Carol Geremia, MFS Asset Management | Opinion

China's rapid growth is unsustainable
Chinese data does have varying degrees of quality. However, making informed investment decisions is about more than just reliable data...
Sam Churchill, Magellan Financial Group | Comment

26 years without a recession. Or six? Or maybe only two?
One measure uses a Laspeyres index and the other a Paasche index, the latter seen as more representative given substitution bias as prices change...
Alex Waschka, QSuper | Comment

Laspeyres and the Paasche indices
Agree that there are different ways of measuring these things - and they in fact measure slightly different things. Conventional real GDP measures the number of loaves, Betty's GDP the purchasing power of those loaves. Which one is better?
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Comment

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