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PortfolioConstruction Forum

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Friday 06 May 2016

Specialist, independent investment continuing education & certification for portfolio construction practitioners

 

Budget blues and blues in the loos
You may be feeling "budgeted out" but don't pass over Dom McCormick's column in this week's Fodder, in which he warns Australia's politicians and RBA about joining the "debt bubble economics" bandwagon. Niall Ferguson gives an insider's perspective on Davos and offers four reasons why George Soros's global deflation prediction is wrong - President Trump being the wild card. Turning to portfolios, US-based adviser, James Lear, shows that Monte Carlo analysis (the most common tool used to forecast portfolio values) is optimistically biased (in his examples, by 5 to 25 times). We bring you an insider's view on why China is heading for a fall from SLI's Alex Wolf (who lived there as an economic adviser to the US state department). But we end on an optimistic note. First SSGA's Olivia Engel explains why gold is great for portfolios (and she's not a bear) then Lazard's Ron Temple predicts that US growth is moving into a new (positive) phase.
All
the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Hear Professor Niall Ferguson present live at PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium (17 May 2016).

LATEST...

"Debt bubble" economics rules
Australia is increasingly resorting to a policy (if you can call it that) of "debt bubble economics" - exactly what caused bubbles and major busts in the US and other economies in recent decades.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners |
Opinion

The world will bounce back from the blues in the loos
But if Trump confounds my Republican friends by winning their party's nomination and then the presidency, all bets will be off.
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University |
Opinion
* Hear Prof Ferguson at PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium 2016 (17 May 2016)

Why Monte Carlo analysis is optimistically biased
Monte Carlo analysis is the most common tool used to project portfolio values - yet it has an optimistic bias that sizeably underestimate required retirement savings.
James Lear, Guideway Financial |
White Paper

China is falling into the middle income trap
As the Chinese economy slows and policymakers struggle to deal with a range of challenges, economic frictions are mounting. Without more drastic reforms, China will find it difficult to avoid the middle income trap.
Alex Wolf, Standard Life Investments  0.50 CE  | 1 comment |
Resources
* Rated in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

Gold stocks are not just for the bears
Gold stocks have become a great addition to portfolios - firstly based on expected returns, but also for their strong diversification benefits given a beta of almost nothing.
Olivia Engel, State Street Global Advisors
|
Opinion

US recovery - entering a new phase
Since mid-February, our confidence has strengthened that the US economic recovery is moving into a new phase as the middle class becomes a bigger driver of growth.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management |
Opinion

Member comments
Australia's good fortune
First, a caveat on banking lending surveys - they measure whether lending conditions have tightened or loosened over the latest quarter but not whether lending conditions are 'tight' or loose'...
Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers Comment

QE is not inflationary - a very valuable lesson
Tim, I am extremely surprised you would suggest that this is fact, indeed a 'very valuable lesson' to be learned. I disagree...
Malcolm Eves, Eastern Asset Management Comment

QE is not inflationary
The mystical non-reason you refer to is called a balance sheet. Do the maths...
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's Comment

RECENTLY...

Brexit now and we will only have to Breturn
History's lesson is that British isolationism is a trigger for continental disintegration. A vote for Brexit will mean Britain will only have to "Breturn" sooner or later, to sort out the ensuing mess.
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University |
Opinion
* Hear Prof Ferguson at PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium 2016 (17 May 2016)

The US election - sound the trumpets?
We expect the US election to start mattering to markets at the end of August, once the two candidates are chosen. Given the rhetoric on the campaign trail and the possibility of an anti-establishment President, policy uncertainty will rise and the US equity risk premium with it.
Marko Papic, BCA Research |
White Paper

Eight core ideas to guide retirement income planning
Retirement income planning is a relatively new field that differs from traditional wealth accumulation. Eight key ideas serve as a manifesto for my approach to retirement income planning.
Wade D. Pfau, The American College |
Opinion

In defense of the Yuan
Notwithstanding an extended period of stability this year, the Chinese Yuan remains fairly high on investors' lists of global risk factors. Perceptions of vulnerability remain and are worth addressing.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers |
Opinion

Investment grade credit - income without destroying capital
It's possible to have your cake and eat it too. Global investment grade credit has not been this attractive in spread terms for the past six years, yet the sector has returned over 7.0% p.a. to Australian investors over the same time period.
Robert Mead, PIMCO  0.50 CE  | 2 comments |
Resources
* Rated in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

Member comments
Ummm
Surely the Japanese experience tells us that there can not just be winners / neutrals, but also losers.
David Hyde, MC2 Wealth Comment

Down the rabbit hole
Terrific article Tim, well done. When you start looking into the Japanese economy you really can go down the proverbial rabbit hole...
James Weir, Steward Wealth Comment

Lessons from Japan
Debt levels for each of the sectors -households, business and government are all fascinating and there are lessons in each...
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's Comment

Get ready for a record-length US recovery
We see the recent trends in US labour force participation rates and the employment-to-population ratio as very positive indicators of the labour market strength I discussed in February at the Markets Summit.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management Comment

China's overcapacity
Hope springs eternal that China will see the wisdom of shutting down excess capacity but alas it is not yet so...
Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
Comment

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