Fodder kicks off with part 2 of Dr Woody Brock's review of the three key risks facing investors - this time, geopolitical risk, concluding that although it is much higher than in the recent past, the probability of war is paradoxically lower. Nouriel Roubini agrees, but asks whether investors are underestimating the potential of rising geopolitical risk to trigger a black swan event. PIMCO's Libby Cantrill explains why President Trump is unlikely to be able to deliver any time this year on his ideas to reignite US economic growth. Professor Ron Bird then reviews three recent papers on factor investing (noting factor investing is available to almost everyone). We end with Douglas Isles's top 3-rated Finology Summit session on how to help investors stay the course and not fall prey to common behavourial pitfalls.
All the best for another week's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Register now for PortfolioConstruction Forum Masterclass NZ (22 June, Auckland) - best suited to senior practitioners in a discretionary role that includes secondary fund research and building multi-manager, multi-asset portfolios. Register today!

QUOTE OF THE WEEK...

"Learn as if you were to live forever." Mahatma Gandhi

LATEST...

Markets
The dramatic decline of risk - part 2 - geopolitical risk
Despite increasing global political risk, the probability of outright war is paradoxically lower than it might have been at any previous period in history.
Dr Woody Brock, SED | White Paper

Markets
Whistling past the geopolitical graveyard
In the face of proliferating geopolitical risks, global financial markets have reached new heights. Markets have trouble pricing "black swan" events, the "unknown unknowns" that are unlikely, but extremely costly.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | Opinion

Markets
A Trump slump?
Trump's election triggered a global stock market upswing, on confidence that he would be able to fulfill his pledge to reignite US economic growth. But how much is Trump really likely to be able to get done?
Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | Opinion

Investing
Research Review: Factor investing
Factor investing has its foundation in the empirical studies of EMH. Via ETFs, we now live in a world where the possibility of factor investing is available to almost everyone. Three recent papers are useful in exploring further.
Prof Ron Bird, UTS | Review

Finology
Buy Low, Sell High sounds simple but clients need a framework
Clients benefit from understanding the investment journey. Having prepared responses to scenarios improves the chance of success.
Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management | 0.25 CE | 2 comments | Resources
* Rated in the top 3 presentations by Finology Summit 2017 delegates

What stocks are yield-based but not heavily geared?
Yield is obviously just the proportion of profits which a company chooses to return as dividends. In general, the higher the proportion, the more a company is likely to be sacrificing future growth...
Martin Conlon, Schroders | Comment

Are assets overvalued
Low interest rates will only cause over-valuation if they are unnaturally low..
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Comment

RECENTLY...

Markets
The dramatic decline of risk - part 1
In a world of risk-on/risk-off investing, it is important for investors to know where true risks lie and where they do not lie. In fact, macroeconomic risk has decreased by well over 80% during the eight decades.
Dr Woody Brock, SED | White Paper

Markets
A world turned inside out
The pendulum of world economic growth has swung - by 2018, the developing countries will have a greater share of world GDP (59%) than developed countries (41%). New? Absolutely. Normal? Not even close.
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Opinion

Markets
Fed tightening - past and present
In a century of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, typically, the Fed has tightened too much and/or for too long. The current tightening cycle will not end any differently.
Lacy Hunt & Van Hoisington, Hoisington Investment Management | Opinion

Strategies
Impact investing in the context of a diversified portfolio
This paper presents evidence to suggest that an allocation to impact investments can contribute potential portfolio benefits from the risk-return profile and low correlation with other asset classes.
Tim Macready, CIMA® & Simba Marekera, Brightlight Impact Advisory | 0.50 CE | White Paper

Finology
Focus investors on goals with a retirement spending policy
A formal, written spending policy can help investors focus on what's really important - will they meet their goals?
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 0.25 CE | Resources
* Rated in the top 3 presentations by Finology Summit 2017 delegates

Overvalued Assets

Thanks Tim, that US analysis succinctly illustrates that those assets are probably overpriced, as are many other assets in Australia and globally...
Mark Hayden, Hayden Financial Services | Comment

Who will buy assets redeemed by retirees to fund their retirement?
...in the developed world, retirement age needs to rise over time, or savings rates must rise dramatically...
Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management | Comment

Housing and superannuation
With Australia's ridiculous Asset Test system, compared to New Zealand's brilliant system, low income people will eventually save up $350,000 in their super and then buy a house, only to go on the full aged pension...
Steve Blizard, Roxburgh Securities | Comment

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