1. Forum Fodder NZ 28 Apr 2017

    This week Fodder kicks off with an analysis of the first round of the French presidential election, and what an (increasingly likely) Emmanuel Macron-led France would mean. Then we turn to three offerings from Dr Bob Gay, Brett Lewthwaite and PIMCO's Jamil Baz, on debt markets and investments. Finally, Professor Jo Earl's top 5-rated Finology Summit session, on how to get clients (ourselves, for that matter) to turn good intentions into action.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum NZ | 28-04-17 | Forum Fodder NZ
  2. Forum Fodder 28 Apr 2017

    This week Fodder kicks off with an analysis of the first round of the French presidential election, and what an (increasingly likely) Emmanuel Macron-led France would mean. Then we turn to three offerings from Dr Bob Gay, Brett Lewthwaite and PIMCO's Jamil Baz, on debt markets and investments. Finally, Professor Jo Earl's top 5-rated Finology Summit session, on how to get clients (ourselves, for that matter) to turn good intentions into action.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 28-04-17 | Forum Fodder
  3. Macron’s mission

    The centrist Emmanuel Macron's success in the first round of the French presidential election is likely to re-energise Europe.

    Harold James, Princeton University  | 26-04-17 | Opinion
  4. Decoding the latest Fed speak

    The Fed's talk of a symmetrical inflation goal played well to markets when they were in the throes of the reflation trade. Markets are now flipping to the conclusion that transparency amounts to dovish policy.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 20-04-17 | Opinion
  5. Welcome to Trump Casino

    The market is expecting a big pick-up in earnings from Trump's business friendly tax cuts, deregulation and an infrastructure spending boom. But will it be enough?

    Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 11-04-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  6. Crouching Donald, Paper Tiger

    Trump is learning that he is hemmed in by the same constraints as Obama's administration. As with Obama, the agent of change is turning out to be an agent of continuity.

    Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | 10-04-17 | Opinion
  7. Forum Fodder NZ 31 Mar 2017

    Fodder kicks off with a unique insight from Peter Lilley on how BREXIT will play out. UTSProf Ron Bird disagrees with Paul Keating on first-home buyers using their super to get a foot on the property ladder. Yale's Stephen Roach argues that, yet again, the Western perspective has missed the Chinese context when it comes to growth. Charles Dallara explains Trump will have a bumpy first half year as he learns the ropes of navigating the US political system and we share details of the newly formed Investment Management Research Program, an initiative between the Forum and UTS Business School that will continue to enhance the breadth and depth of our CE and certification programs.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum NZ | 31-03-17 | Forum Fodder NZ
  8. Forum Fodder 31 Mar 2017

    Fodder kicks off with a unique insight from Peter Lilley on how BREXIT will play out. UTSProf Ron Bird disagrees with Paul Keating on first-home buyers using their super to get a foot on the property ladder. Yale's Stephen Roach argues that, yet again, the Western perspective has missed the Chinese context when it comes to growth. Charles Dallara explains Trump will have a bumpy first half year as he learns the ropes of navigating the US political system and we share details of the newly formed Investment Management Research Program, an initiative between the Forum and UTS Business School that will continue to enhance the breadth and depth of our CE and certification programs.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 31-03-17 | Forum Fodder
  9. Brexit wheels start to turn

    On Wednesday, Theresa May triggered the mechanism for UK to leave the EU. But the UK's relationship with the EU has already changed, says UK MP Peter Lilley.

    Nathan Smith, National Business Review | 31-03-17 | Opinion
  10. The tempt-ations of a resilient China

    Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. The near-term prognosis for the Chinese economy is far more encouraging than most had expected. China is actually making rapid progress on the road to rebalancing.

    Stephen Roach, Yale University | 28-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  11. How will Brexit play out?

    As Britain embarks on the process of disentangling itself from the EU, the country will regain control over national law and policy making, raising opportunities to implement new models.

    Peter Lilley, MP | 28-03-17 | Opinion
  12. Forum Fodder NZ 24 Mar 2017

    Dr Woody Brock leads this week with an exclusive 15-minute video in which he debunks the myth that our living standards have declined. Berkeley Professor Eichengreen explains what "an impatient [US] president, frustrated and hemmed in on all sides" is likely to do. Michael Kitces argues that every retirement income strategy needs to address three key questions to satisfy our intrinsic (illogical) "hierarchy of retirement needs". Will Jackson covers demography specialist Richard Jackson's insights on how ageing in the developed world is increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world. And, we bring you Ron Temple's top five-rated presentation on why "the winds of change" sweeping through the markets are stronger than you think.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum NZ | 24-03-17 | Forum Fodder NZ
  13. Forum Fodder 24 Mar 2017

    Dr Woody Brock leads this week with an exclusive 15-minute video in which he debunks the myth that our living standards have declined. Berkeley Professor Eichengreen explains what "an impatient [US] president, frustrated and hemmed in on all sides" is likely to do. Michael Kitces argues that every retirement income strategy needs to address three key questions to satisfy our intrinsic (illogical) "hierarchy of retirement needs". Will Jackson covers demography specialist Richard Jackson's insights on how ageing in the developed world is increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world. And, we bring you Ron Temple's top five-rated presentation on why "the winds of change" sweeping through the markets are stronger than you think.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 24-03-17 | Forum Fodder
  14. The myth of declining living standards

    Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.

    Dr Woody Brock, SED | 22-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  15. Ageing will reshape the global order

    Global ageing will have significant effects over the next few decades as it reduces the economic power and geopolitical influence of developed nations, in turn increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 22-03-17 | Opinion
  16. About Summit

    The annual PortfolioConstruction Forum Summit consists of two completely separate, back-to-back, one-day onstage programs, each addressing one of our five core knowledge areas - Markets Summit (debate the outlook for the markets) and Finology Summit (learning how to better relate to investors).

    21-03-17 | More
  17. About Markets Summit

    Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. It will help you understand the key investment market and asset class opportunities (and risks) ahead, to aid your search for return and in building better quality investor portfolios.

    21-03-17 | More
  18. What's a president to do?

    Trump promised a raft of sweeping economic-policy changes - but has quickly discovered that the US political system is designed to prevent rapid, large-scale change. So what will an impatient president do?

    Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | 20-03-17 | Opinion
  19. Forum Fodder NZ 10 Mar 2017

    Chris Watling returns to Fodder this week with a 10-minute video insight, Prof J Bradford DeLong compares society's overall wealth today to the Agrarian Age, Tim Farrelly debunks the notion that negative gearing is the driver of high property prices and Will Jackson sums up how Markets Summit delegates converted the Faculty's insights into four practical portfolio construction decisions. Finally we feature Martin Conlon's top-rated presentation from Markets Summit 2017 in which he argues how to reposition Australian equity portfolios to protect against the risk of higher inflation and interest rates.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum NZ | 10-03-17 | Forum Fodder NZ
  20. Forum Fodder 10 Mar 2017

    Chris Watling returns to Fodder this week with a 10-minute video insight, Prof J Bradford DeLong compares society's overall wealth today to the Agrarian Age, Tim Farrelly debunks the notion that negative gearing is the driver of high property prices and Will Jackson sums up how Markets Summit delegates converted the Faculty's insights into four practical portfolio construction decisions. Finally we feature Martin Conlon's top-rated presentation from Markets Summit 2017 in which he argues how to reposition Australian equity portfolios to protect against the risk of higher inflation and interest rates.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 10-03-17 | Forum Fodder
  21. farrelly's Investment Strategy (Australia)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation subscriber-only area.

    07-03-17 | 1 comment | Full Story
  22. farrelly's Investment Strategy (NZ)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...

    07-03-17 | Full Story
  23. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (NZ Edition)

    The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...

    07-03-17 | Full Story
  24. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Australian Edition)

    The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

    07-03-17 | Full Story
  25. Forum Fodder NZ 03 Mar 2017

    In this week's Fodder, Tim Farrelly, Jonathan Pain's top-rated presentation from our recent Markets Summit 2017 program, Bob Gay, Prof Jeffrey Sachs, Michael Kitces and Derek Thurp.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum NZ | 06-03-17 | Forum Fodder NZ
  26. Rethinking productivity growth

    In thinking about the future of growth, and the opportunities that continued growth will open up for all of humanity, we should reflect on how far we have come.

    J. Bradford DeLong, University of California | 06-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  27. Forum Fodder 03 Mar 2017

    In this week's Fodder, Tim Farrelly, Jonathan Pain's top-rated presentation from our recent Markets Summit 2017 program, Bob Gay, Prof Jeffrey Sachs, Michael Kitces and Derek Thurp.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 03-03-17 | Forum Fodder
  28. The three Trumps

    What Donald Trump's rise to the US presidency portends requires unraveling three mysteries - because there are three versions of Trump.

    Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University | 02-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  29. Navigating normalisation

    History indicates a reasonably graceful exit from ultra-low interest rates is possible - and that investors can weather the storm with the right strategy. Let's sort out which risks are worth worrying about and which are not.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 01-03-17 | Opinion
  30. 2017 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

    Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.

    01-03-17 | Resources
  31. The wrong side of maybe fallacy

    Monte Carlo analysis is commonly used to evaluate retirement spending plans - but our cognitive and behavioural biases may interfere with proper interpretation of the results.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 28-02-17 | Research
  32. Low interest rates matter. So do imputation credits

    A recent, widely circulated article suggested the major Australian banks are overpriced. But including the effect of imputation and a view on interest rates makes a huge difference...

    Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 27-02-17 | Opinion
  33. Forum Fodder NZ 24 Feb 2017

    This week's Fodder features Prof Niall Ferguson's presentation from Markets Summit, Prof Ken Rogoff explaining why Trump can't afford to bully China. Our own Will Jackson has written up his key takeouts from Finology Summit, and Michael Furey looks at the evidence of a link between Australian economic growth and equity market returns. And finally, we feature the WEF's founder, Klaus Schwab, on the impact of the fourth industrial revolution on how we will live, work and relate with one another.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum NZ | 24-02-17 | Forum Fodder NZ
  34. Forum Fodder 24 Feb 2017

    This week's Fodder features Prof Niall Ferguson's presentation from Markets Summit, Prof Ken Rogoff explaining why Trump can't afford to bully China. Our own Will Jackson has written up his key takeouts from Finology Summit, and Michael Furey looks at the evidence of a link between Australian economic growth and equity market returns. And finally, we feature the WEF's founder, Klaus Schwab, on the impact of the fourth industrial revolution on how we will live, work and relate with one another.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 24-02-17 | Forum Fodder
  35. Economic growth and equity market returns

    This paper revisits the relationship between economic growth and equity market returns. Much of the literature has focused on the US so this analysis includes Australia and the UK, too.

    Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | 20-02-17 | 6 comments | Research
  36. Markets Summit 2017 - The winds of change - key takeouts

    Markets Summit 2017 delivered 20+ high conviction ideas on how the winds of change are affecting the outlook for economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios. Here are our key takeouts.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 17-02-17 | Key Takeouts
  37. The winds have changed

    The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | Resources
  38. Expect turbulent US-China ties to test the region

    US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.

    Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  39. Stereotypes and noise obscure good decisions

    Applying discipline, fact and data to the assembly of a portfolio leads to investment opportunities overlooked by many who pursue their 'feelings' rather than data.

    Kerr Neilson, Platinum Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  40. Credit - the epicentre of the next crisis

    Markets have run hard in recent months on speculative exuberance. However, the critical question is will President Trump prove to be a tailwind, or a headwind for the global economy?

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 14-02-17 | Resources
  41. Winds have changed

    The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  42. Australian equities portfolios are vulnerable to inflation

    Bond-sensitive stocks now form a record 60% of the ASX's market cap. Australian equity investors should hold a greater proportion in real-asset stocks and reduce exposure to artificially inflated financial stocks.

    Martin Conlon, Schroders | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 4 comments | Resources
  43. Turbulent US-China ties to test the region

    US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.

    Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  44. Now is the time to accumulate duration

    As 2017 began, there was (once again) an air of optimism that interest rates are about to return to normal. This optimism dismisses the significant structural headwinds that are prevalent.

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | Resources
  45. There are 4 fundamental decisions to make now for portfolios

    When positioning a multi-asset, portfolio for the medium-term, there are four fundamental decisions we must make now. They are, in some cases, interdependent.

    Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  46. Australian real estate is in for a soft landing

    A-REITs may face headwinds over the next two years, but total returns will likely remain positive, before returning to a more normal level of 8% to 10% per annum.

    Damien Barrack, Renaissance Asset Management | 14-02-17 | Resources
  47. The hunt for yield is over

    Money velocity is accelerating in the US and UK, as commercial banks rediscover their appetite for risk and the two economies continue to normalise. The shift has significant implications for asset allocators.

    Chris Watling, Longview Economics | 14-02-17 | 2 comments | Opinion
  48. Australian government bonds can still provide positive returns

    There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.

    Charles Jamieson, Jamieson Coote Bonds | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  49. Winds of change are driving opportunities in Europe and Korea

    Investors should focus on asymmetric opportunities with a margin of safety and multiple ways of winning. Developed Asia and Europe offer these in abundance.

    Jacob Mitchell, Antipodes Partners | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  50. Caveat Emptor

    A large number of small, high conviction positions will lead to better outcomes for portfolios compared to a small number of large, high conviction positions.

    Olivia Engel, State Street Global Advisors | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  51. Rising rates, populism... but infrastructure remains reliable

    For the foreseeable future, earnings of the infrastructure assets asset class, if defined in a disciplined manner, should continue to be reliable.

    Gerald Stack, Magellan Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  52. Bonds are the "walking dead" - time to rotate into loans

    Bond investors have enjoyed a multi-decade bull run in yields, fuelled by unsustainable post-GFC stimulus, but "the times they are a-changing".

    Jeffrey Reemer, Invesco | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | Resources
  53. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air"

    The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  54. Panel: The winds of change

    Partners Group's Charles Dallara, Lazard's Ron Temple, and Magellan's Hamish Douglass debate the winds of change sweeping through the global economy and equity markets.

    Panel | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  55. The Winds of change are stronger than you think

    Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 4 comments | Resources
  56. We are entering a year of nationalism by trial and error

    2017 will be a year of two halves: the first - trial and error, volatility and more setbacks than successes for Trump's economic policies; the second - a shift to less confrontation, more cooperation and a win-win for the US and the world.

    Charles Dallara, Partners Group | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  57. Winds of change are stronger than you think

    Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  58. Populist discontent spells danger for markets

    If western governments cannot find a way to reconcile open markets with more stable and evenly distributed income growth, globalisation could begin to reverse with dire implications for risk assets.

    Jeremy Lawson, Standard Life Investments | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  59. Trump the game changer - the only certainty now is uncertainty

    2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as the winds of change sweep through the global economy and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.

    Stephen Halmarick, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | Resources
  60. The economic and geopolitical consequences of Mr Trump

    There is no subject of more importance to investors than what Donald J. Trump will do with the powers of the US presidency. There are pluses and minuses of Trumponomics.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  61. The winds of change

    Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  62. Why Trump can't bully China

    The US cannot "win" a trade war with China, and any victory will be Pyrrhic - leading to massive price increases in the low-cost stores on which many Americans rely.

    Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | 13-02-17 | Opinion
  63. Backgrounder: 5 Megatrends driving portfolio construction

    In 2002, we embarked on a quest to identify the secular forces which would substantially influence markets over the coming decade. We proposed five megatrends - which still drive portfolio construction today.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 13-02-17 | Backgrounder
  64. 2017 key themes and risks

    The biggest event for global financial markets in 2017 is likely to have taken place on 20 January. How the Trump Presidency unfolds will clearly have a significant impact not just on the US but on global markets in 2017 and beyond.

    Stephen Halmarick et al, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  65. 2017 Global Outlook

    The three main economies that will largely determine the health of the global economy remain the United States, the euro zone, and China. Each is at a different stage of its economic cycle and faces different challenges.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  66. 2017 Summit - overview & registration

    Consisting of two separate, back-to-back, independently curated, one-day programs (choose to attend either or both), Summit 2017 will help you navigate the winds of change, to build better quality investor portfolios.

    08-02-17 | Overview & Registration
  67. Forum Fodder NZ 03 Feb 2017

    In our first Fodder for the year, Jonathan Pain makes the case that 2017 is a year politics really matters to investing, while Mohamed El-Erian is on the same wave length. Dr Bob Gay gives his unique insider's view of what will cause the US Fed to raise rates, when and by how much. Michael Kitces explains how to properly integrate two dimensions of risk profiling into portfolios (don't use a simplistic questionnaire!). Lastly, our own Will Jackson reports on the hot topics debated by the group of 10 senior fund analysts on our Research Roundtable International program.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum NZ | 03-02-17 | Forum Fodder NZ
  68. Forum Fodder 03 Feb 2017

    In our first Fodder for the year, Jonathan Pain makes the case that 2017 is a year politics really matters to investing, while Mohamed El-Erian is on the same wave length. Dr Bob Gay gives his unique insider's view of what will cause the US Fed to raise rates, when and by how much. Michael Kitces explains how to properly integrate two dimensions of risk profiling into portfolios (don't use a simplistic questionnaire!). Lastly, our own Will Jackson reports on the hot topics debated by the group of 10 senior fund analysts on our Research Roundtable International program.

    Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 03-02-17 | Forum Fodder
  69. Research Roundtable International 2016 - key takeouts

    Put 10 senior Australian fund analysts on an eight-day CE program to the west coast of the USA? Inevitably, the group debated their views on many issues.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 02-02-17 | 2 comments | Key Takeouts
  70. Tighter monetary conditions

    The stage is set for an inevitable tightening in monetary conditions. The only questions are how soon, how much and with what consequences.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 01-02-17 | Opinion
  71. An unstable economic order?

    The retreat of advanced economies from the global economy could have far-reaching consequences.

    Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz | 31-01-17 | Opinion
  72. Watching the Donald show is fun, but...

    America is living through a kind of Trumpian Genesis - seven days of high-speed political creation. No one yet knows how all this will pan out.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 29-01-17 | Opinion
  73. Does political analysis matter when investing?

    Should we just keep our heads down and treat political events as nothing more than noise? 2017 is going to be a year when politics does matter. In fact, it always has.

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 28-01-17 | Opinion
  74. Misjudge China and Donald will never make America great again

    Like all presidents, Trump will be judged by how far he makes good on his pledges. It is important to distinguish between the real and the imaginary obstacles Trump faces.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 22-01-17 | Opinion
  75. Here's a true Trump nightmare for the liberals

    No doubt the liberal media will wage unrelenting war on Trump, as they did on Nixon nearly half a century ago. But this is not the 1970s.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 15-01-17 | Opinion