1. The Hunger Bonds

    Investing often creates moral dilemmas over goals. Should decent people put their money in emerging-market bond funds?

    Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard Kennedy School | 29-05-17 | Opinion
  2. What ratings agencies are really good at

    After the ratings failures of CDOs and other complex instruments in the GFC, many dismiss the work of the ratings agencies. But far from being hopeless, they do a wonderful job of assessing companies.

    Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 26-05-17 | 1 comment | Full Story
  3. Rethinking the Next China

    China is upping the ante on its connection to an increasingly integrated world, running against the grain of the populist anti-globalisation backlash that is brewing in many developed countries.

    Stephen Roach, Yale University | 25-05-17 | Opinion
  4. The worry about indexing is overblown

    The number of indexes has exploded and now exceeds the number of stocks in the US. But overall, the US stock market is still dominated by active management. And 96% of index products are of insignificant size.

    Urban Carmel, The Fat Pitch | 24-05-17 | Opinion
  5. The dramatic decline of risk - part 3 - Financial market risks

    Overall stock market risk has declined modestly in the last 80 years, but the nature of risk has changed greatly. The risk stemming from market mistakes and, possibly, from irrationality has risen significantly.

    Dr Woody Brock, SED | 22-05-17 | White Paper
  6. The dramatic decline of risk - part 2 - geopolitical risk

    Despite increasing global political risk, the probability of outright war is paradoxically lower than it might have been at any previous period in history.

    Dr Woody Brock, SED | 17-05-17 | White Paper
  7. Whistling past the geopolitical graveyard

    Despite proliferating geopolitical risks, global financial markets have reached new heights. Markets have trouble pricing "black swan" events, the "unknown unknowns" that are unlikely, but extremely costly.

    Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | 15-05-17 | Opinion
  8. Research Review: Factor investing

    Factor investing has its foundation in the empirical studies of EMH. Via ETFs, we now live in a world where the possibility of factor investing is available to almost everyone. Three recent papers are useful in exploring further.

    Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 15-05-17 | Review
  9. The dramatic decline of risk - part 1

    In a world of risk-on/risk-off investing, it is important for investors to know where true risks lie and where they do not lie. In fact, macroeconomic risk has decreased by well over 80% during the eight decades.

    Dr Woody Brock, SED | 04-05-17 | White Paper
  10. Impact investing in the context of a diversified portfolio

    This paper presents evidence to suggest that an allocation to impact investments can contribute potential portfolio benefits from the risk-return profile and low correlation with other asset classes.

    Tim Macready, CIMA® & Simba Marekera, Brightlight Impact Advisory | 03-05-17 | 0.50 CE | White Paper
  11. Fed tightening past and present

    In a century of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, typically, the Fed has tightened too much and/or for too long. The current tightening cycle will not end any differently.

    Lacy Hunt & Van Hoisington, Hoisington Investment Management | 02-05-17 | Opinion
  12. A world turned inside out

    The pendulum of world economic growth has swung - by 2018, the developing countries will have a greater share of world GDP (59%) than developed countries (41%). New? Absolutely. Normal? Not even close.

    Stephen Roach, Yale University | 01-05-17 | Opinion
  13. Bonds are different - active v passive

    Opinions in the active-passive investment debate have drifted poles apart over recent years. This paper revisits this discussion finding that, unlike their stock counterparts, active bond mutual funds have largely outperformed their median passive peers over the sample period.

    Jamil Baz et al, PIMCO | 27-04-17 | White Paper
  14. Macron’s mission

    The centrist Emmanuel Macron's success in the first round of the French presidential election is likely to re-energise Europe.

    Harold James, Princeton University  | 26-04-17 | Opinion
  15. Decoding the latest Fed speak

    The Fed's talk of a symmetrical inflation goal played well to markets when they were in the throes of the reflation trade. Markets are now flipping to the conclusion that transparency amounts to dovish policy.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 20-04-17 | Opinion
  16. Welcome to Trump Casino

    The market is expecting a big pick-up in earnings from Trump's business friendly tax cuts, deregulation and an infrastructure spending boom. But will it be enough?

    Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 11-04-17 | 8 comments | Opinion
  17. Crouching Donald, Paper Tiger

    Trump is learning that he is hemmed in by the same constraints as Obama's administration. As with Obama, the agent of change is turning out to be an agent of continuity.

    Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | 10-04-17 | Opinion
  18. Research Review: Only in Scandinavia?

    Do professional investors do better when investing on their own behalf? What is the relationship between the remuneration of professional investors and performance? What role to gender and age play in the use of ETFs?

    Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 10-04-17 | Review
  19. Brexit wheels start to turn

    On Wednesday, Theresa May triggered the mechanism for UK to leave the EU. But the UK's relationship with the EU has already changed, says UK MP Peter Lilley.

    Nathan Smith, National Business Review | 31-03-17 | Opinion
  20. The Forum & UTS launch IMR Program

    PortfolioConstruction Forum has partnered with University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Business School, to support the newly formed Investment Management Research Program (the IMR Program), a research initiative in the areas of capital market operations, financial institutions/intermediaries and institutional investors.

    30-03-17 | Update
  21. First-home buyers should be able to use their super

    Home ownership is of critical importance for retirees. But compulsory superannuation plays a major role in ensuring low-income earners never gain access to home ownership.

    Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 29-03-17 | 6 comments | Opinion
  22. The temptations of a resilient China

    Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. The near-term prognosis for the Chinese economy is far more encouraging than most had expected. China is actually making rapid progress on the road to rebalancing.

    Stephen Roach, Yale University | 28-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  23. Behavioral biases & hierarchy of retirement needs

    Research suggests we mentally account for income and assets with an intrinsic hierarchy of priorities - a "hierarchy of retirement needs". So retirement income strategies should be reframed to answer three questions.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 23-03-17 | Research
  24. Ageing will reshape the global order

    Global ageing will have significant effects over the next few decades as it reduces the economic power and geopolitical influence of developed nations, in turn increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 22-03-17 | Opinion
  25. What's a president to do?

    Trump promised a raft of sweeping economic-policy changes - but has quickly discovered that the US political system is designed to prevent rapid, large-scale change. So what will an impatient president do?

    Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | 20-03-17 | Opinion
  26. Negative gearing is responsible for high property prices?

    A more realistic view of the world is that price appreciation drives negative gearing - not the other way around. Abolish negative gearing and nothing much happens.

    Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 10-03-17 | 11 comments | Opinion
  27. farrelly's Investment Strategy (NZ)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...

    07-03-17 | Full Story
  28. farrelly's Investment Strategy (Australia)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation subscriber-only area.

    07-03-17 | 1 comment | Full Story
  29. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (NZ Edition)

    The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...

    07-03-17 | Full Story
  30. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Australian Edition)

    The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

    07-03-17 | Full Story
  31. Rethinking productivity growth

    In thinking about the future of growth, and the opportunities that continued growth will open up for all of humanity, we should reflect on how far we have come.

    J. Bradford DeLong, University of California | 06-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  32. Four fundamental portfolio construction decisions

    Markets Summit 2017 delivered 20+ high conviction ideas on how the winds of change are affecting the outlook for economies and asset classes - and delegates were asked to convert the insights into four fundamental portfolio construction decisions.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 06-03-17 | Opinion
  33. The three Trumps

    What Donald Trump's rise to the US presidency portends requires unraveling three mysteries - because there are three versions of Trump.

    Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University | 02-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  34. Navigating normalisation

    History indicates a reasonably graceful exit from ultra-low interest rates is possible - and that investors can weather the storm with the right strategy. Let's sort out which risks are worth worrying about and which are not.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 01-03-17 | Opinion
  35. 2017 Markets Summit - Webcast

    Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.

    01-03-17 | Resources
  36. 2017 Finology Summit - Resources Kit

    Finology Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of finology experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on how the winds of change are impacting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better relate with them (and help others who must do so).

    01-03-17 | Resources
  37. Low interest rates matter. So do imputation credits

    A recent, widely circulated article suggested the major Australian banks are overpriced. But including the effect of imputation and a view on interest rates makes a huge difference...

    Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 27-02-17 | Opinion
  38. Finology Summit 2017 - The winds of change - key takeouts

    Finology Summit 2017 focused on how "The winds of change" are affecting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better to relate with them. Here are our key takeouts.

    23-02-17 | Key Takeouts
  39. Economic growth and equity market returns

    This paper revisits the relationship between economic growth and equity market returns. Much of the literature has focused on the US so this analysis includes Australia and the UK, too.

    Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | 20-02-17 | 6 comments | Research
  40. Empathy is the essential skill to survive

    The key trait for relating to investors in the future will be the one skill that our brains are not programmed to receive from a computer - empathy.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  41. The winds of change and the 4IR

    Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  42. The winds have changed

    The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | Resources
  43. Winds have changed

    The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  44. Now is the time to accumulate duration

    As 2017 began, there was (once again) an air of optimism that interest rates are about to return to normal. This optimism dismisses the significant structural headwinds that are prevalent.

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | Resources
  45. Trump the game changer - the only certainty now is uncertainty

    2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as the winds of change sweep through the global economy and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.

    Stephen Halmarick, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | Resources
  46. The economic and geopolitical consequences of Mr Trump

    There is no subject of more importance to investors than what Donald J. Trump will do with the powers of the US presidency. There are pluses and minuses of Trumponomics.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  47. The winds of change

    Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  48. Why Trump can't bully China

    The US cannot "win" a trade war with China, and any victory will be Pyrrhic - leading to massive price increases in the low-cost stores on which many Americans rely.

    Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | 13-02-17 | Opinion
  49. Backgrounder: 5 Megatrends driving portfolio construction

    In 2002, we embarked on a quest to identify the secular forces which would substantially influence markets over the coming decade. We proposed five megatrends - which still drive portfolio construction today.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 13-02-17 | Backgrounder
  50. Empathy is the essential skill to survive the Robo threat

    With the onward marching of computing power, our transition from being "knowledge workers" to "relationship workers" may be here sooner than we realise.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 10-02-17 | 2 comments | White Paper
  51. The 4th industrial revolution

    We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In the end, it all comes down to people and values.

    Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  52. 2017 key themes and risks

    The biggest event for global financial markets in 2017 is likely to have taken place on 20 January. How the Trump Presidency unfolds will clearly have a significant impact not just on the US but on global markets in 2017 and beyond.

    Stephen Halmarick et al, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  53. Loss aversion, "FoMo", anxiety and mistiming

    Four common behavioural problems make the journey of investing particularly challenging for many investors. An understanding of each help investors stay the course and meet their goals.

    Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  54. 2017 Global Outlook

    The three main economies that will largely determine the health of the global economy remain the United States, the euro zone, and China. Each is at a different stage of its economic cycle and faces different challenges.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  55. Research Roundtable International 2016 - key takeouts

    Put 10 senior Australian fund analysts on an eight-day CE program to the west coast of the USA? Inevitably, the group debated their views on many issues.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 02-02-17 | 2 comments | Key Takeouts
  56. Tighter monetary conditions

    The stage is set for an inevitable tightening in monetary conditions. The only questions are how soon, how much and with what consequences.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 01-02-17 | Opinion
  57. An unstable economic order?

    The retreat of advanced economies from the global economy could have far-reaching consequences.

    Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz | 31-01-17 | Opinion
  58. A two-dimensional risk tolerance assessment process

    Beware using risk tolerance assessment tools that blend risk tolerance and risk capacity into a single result. The two need to be measured separately.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 30-01-17 | 2 comments | White paper
  59. Watching the Donald show is fun, but...

    America is living through a kind of Trumpian Genesis - seven days of high-speed political creation. No one yet knows how all this will pan out.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 29-01-17 | Opinion
  60. Does political analysis matter when investing?

    Should we just keep our heads down and treat political events as nothing more than noise? 2017 is going to be a year when politics does matter. In fact, it always has.

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 28-01-17 | Opinion
  61. What are senior secured loans and why invest in them?

    Senior secured loans offer a combination of strong current income with relatively low volatility given their defensive position in the capital structure and short duration.

    Invesco | 25-01-17 | White Paper
  62. Misjudge China and Donald will never make America great again

    Like all presidents, Trump will be judged by how far he makes good on his pledges. It is important to distinguish between the real and the imaginary obstacles Trump faces.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 22-01-17 | Opinion
  63. Here's a true Trump nightmare for the liberals

    No doubt the liberal media will wage unrelenting war on Trump, as they did on Nixon nearly half a century ago. But this is not the 1970s.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 15-01-17 | Opinion