We have entered a period of intensifying geopolitical rivalries and conflicts. Russia’s war on Ukraine is now in its third year; the Israel-Hamas conflict could still become a regional war; and the deepening cold war between the United States and China may yet turn hot over Taiwan sometime this decade.

If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November, the world will be even further destabilised. And yet, these risks have had only a limited effect on economies and markets so far. Might that soon change?

While the Russia-Ukraine war remains as brutal as ever, its gl...