Perspectives

The global economy's New Abnormal

How much longer can markets not only ignore the real economy, but also discount political risk? Welcome to the New Abnormal for growth, inflation, monetary policies, and asset prices.

Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics 1 commentOpinion

Perspectives

It's time to go - Angela Merkel

Only half a year ago, I explained how boring German politics had become. Angela Merkel's position seemed virtually unassailable and the 2017 election result a foregone conclusion. Not anymore.

Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative 1 commentOpinion

Perspectives

The case for gold res-urrected

When central banks are taking to extreme policies, and Donald Trump has a decent chance of being US President, we need to be prepared for anything. Gold may not be the perfect hedge, but what is?

Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners Opinion

Perspectives

Jewels may out-perform tools

It seems that the markets are indicating that we have entered a period in which jewels (gold) will outperform tools (stocks). Try as we may (we are no gold-bugs), we struggle to find reasons to discard the market's message.

Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal Opinion

Perspectives

Thinking like Fed Chair Yellen

Yellen has wanted to nip a brewing asset price bubble before it was too late. January's market selloff has accomplished her intent. Now she take her foot off the brake.

Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers Opinion

Perspectives

Turbulence in the world economy and markets

The consensus view that falling oil prices and a China slowdown are the main drivers of slowing world growth is only half the true story of why global growth is 3% rather than 6% as it was - and could and should be again.

Dr Woody Brock, SED White Paper

Perspectives

Does the Financial Services Council understand imputation?

The FSC has called for a cut in the company tax rate to 22%, funded by an increase in the GST. It's hard to see why FSC made this call, particularly given that its stated number one priority is "working to improve the well-being of all Australians".

Tim Farrelly, farrelly's 4 commentsOpinion

Perspectives

Annus Horribilis 2016

2016 has started poorly for the global economy - and horribly for markets. A number of negative themes are ascendant, whereas the positive ones are either pausing or petering out.

Marko Papic, BCA Research White Paper

Perspectives

Here comes Daddy bear

For the last few months, I've been concerned that a bear market was likely to unfold. We are now on such a trajectory. History suggests that such episodes come in two distinct extremes.

Charles Gave, GaveKal Opinion

Perspectives

The global migration blowback

Nearly half of the world's economies are at a "high" or "very high" risk of political and social unrest. It is a disaster waiting to happen.

Dambisa Moyo Opinion

Perspectives

Re-balancing usually reduces returns

While rebalancing may be helpful as a risk management strategy, it may actually reduce long-term returns. But that isn't a reason to avoid it.

Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group0.25 CE 1 commentWhite Paper