Perspectives

Now for the next Euro Crisis

As we have just witnessed, it took an enormous effort to keep Greece in the eurozone. In the end, Europe could deal with the problem. For other members, such propping up will not always be possible. What happens next in France, Spain and Italy may well turn out to be more worrying than anything we have seen around Athens so far.

Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative Opinion

Perspectives

The ratcheting safe withdrawal rate

A simple ratchet-style "safe" withdrawal rate approach, where spending is increased by 10% any time the portfolio rises more than 50% above its starting value, beats the traditional 4% rule, generating equal or better retirement spending, even while being conservative enough to not require a spending cut in the event of a market pullback in the future.

Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group 1 commentWhite Paper

Perspectives

Bonds and the Fed's rate liftoff

This week, Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has repeatedly said it is likely the Fed will lift its policy rate at its September meeting. It will be a minor adjustment but a momentous event. In short, I expect the first 100 basis points of Fed normalisation will have relatively little effect on long-term rates - with a critical caveat.

Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers Opinion

Perspectives

The end of an empire

We should acknowledge the Greek crisis for what it is - the death-knell for the European dream of empire. The growing reality is the return of borders, national preferences, and opt-outs. The euro has become a structurally weak currency and European bonds are likely to underperform those of other, nonshrinking, empires.

Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal Opinion

Perspectives

The mirage of the financial singularity

Will alpha eventually go to zero for every imaginable investment strategy, as suggested by Swedroe & Berkin's The Incredible Shrinking Alpha? The idea of financial singularity may seem inspiring, but real world markets are nowhere close to it.

Robert J. Shiller, Yale University Opinion

Perspectives

Markets from China, media commentary from Uranus

Despite all the negative ink that's been spilt over the recent collapse in Chinese equities, we continue to believe that a year from now there will be more marginal buyers of Chinese equities than today.

Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal Opinion

Perspectives

Greece, from bad to worse

Whatever the EU now decides at its summit on Sunday (the umpteenth, by my count), it will be costly. It is unlikely to work. And it was totally avoidable.

Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative Opinion

Perspectives

The best approach to adjustable retirement withdrawals

The classic 4% rule holds withdrawals at 4% of the initial value of the portfolio at retirement. A great deal of recent research has focused on strategies that adjust withdrawals depending on investment experience.

Joe Tomlinson, Tomlinson Financial Planning0.75 CPD White Paper

Perspectives

Should investors look after PETS?

Understanding PETS - Political, Environmental, Technological/Scientific, Social - factors is relevant, if not crucial, to us as citizens. But to what extent are they relevant or important to investing?

Prof Jack Gray, UTS Opinion

Perspectives

Burning bridges

Greece's creditors are likely to find it very difficult to compromise. Capitulate today and Greece will be back for more concessions in future. Many politicians will want to draw the line here and now, making Grexit highly likely.

UBS Global Asset Management Opinion

Perspectives

Bank hybrids - equity risk with bond returns?

We hear this one a lot. It's incredibly misleading. Bank hybrids offer better than bond returns with higher risk, and lower than equity returns with much lower than equity risk.

Tim Farrelly, farrelly's Opinion