US rate signal may be broken

Relying on Fed tightening to predict the next serious sharemarket weakness may be very dangerous.

Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management Opinion


The German word for this

The German word for what we saw in markets this week is Torschlusspanik. Literally "gate-shut-panic", it describes the nasty crush when everyone rushes at once for an exit.

GaveKal Opinion


Market volatility - has it turned?

Earlier this year, volatility across a whole range of key global assets reached major multi-year lows. But, equity volatility, we expect, has passed it's low for this cycle.

Chris Watling, Longview Economics White Paper


China's Gordian policy knot

China has about five years to lay the groundwork for the transition to a new monetary policy framework with a currency that is sufficiently flexible.

Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers White Paper


Prepare for a change of course

There may be rocks ahead. Reconnecting risk and return must be the right focus - but thinking conventional tools will keep us out of trouble may be a mistake.

Alan Brown, Schroders Insight


Down the retirement risk zone with gun

This particularly relevant review of literature on sequencing risk considers the impact of Australia's age pension on retirement spending strategies.

Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum Research


Markets' rational complacency

An increasingly obvious paradox has emerged in global financial markets this year. While geopolitical risks have multiplied, markets remain buoyant, if not downright bubbly.

Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics Opinion


Geopolitical risks (and rewards) - the impact on portfolios

If geopolitics is far more important in considering investment markets today, how do we integrate geopolitics into portfolio construction?

Marko Papic, BCA Research Resources


Hearing echoes of 1987

Today is much less reminiscent of 2007, when global equity prices were at similar levels to today, than of 1987. But it seems too early for investors to panic, or even reduce risk.

Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal 1 comment Opinion


Retirement risk, rising equity glidepaths and valuation-based asset allocation

The dynamic duo (Kitces and Pfau) are back in their search for the ultimate truth about retirement income planning and how to structure portfolios to minimise drawdowns.

Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum Research


An update on the route and destination

In the US, despite moderate growth, we see very attractive valuations while many emerging markets are undervalued. But 7% growth in China is unrealistic.

Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management Opinion


Reconnecting the three Rs - Risk & Return (& Relating)

The last decade has seen a distinct disconnect between investment risk and return, versus what we're taught should be the case.

Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum Resources


Quiescent markets - why is volatility so low?

With global volatility at multi decade lows, the critical questions become: should we be worried or relaxed? What next? In fact, quiescent markets should be feared, not embraced.

Chris Watling, Longview Economics Resources


Risk & return: Two investment approaches

If risk and return are imperfectly linked, there is opportunity to increase average return, without increasing risk - particularly in equity markets where risk is mispriced.

Ryan Taliaferro, Acadian Asset Management Resources