1. farrelly's User Group 2017 - attendance attestation

    The farrelly's User Group 2017 has been assessed and accredited by PortfolioConstruction Forum for Forum CE hours. These can be used to help meet the CE/CPD requirements of 15 regulators, associations, institutes and designations – including ASIC RG104/105/146 requirements and CIMA certificants’ CE commitment. Delegates must attest their attendance in order to receive CE acceditation.

    29-03-17 | 0.00 CE | More
  2. The temptations of a resilient China

    Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. The near-term prognosis for the Chinese economy is far more encouraging than most had expected. China is actually making rapid progress on the road to rebalancing.

    Stephen Roach, Yale University | 28-03-17 | Opinion
  3. Behavioral biases & hierarchy of retirement needs

    Research suggests we mentally account for income and assets with an intrinsic hierarchy of priorities - a "hierarchy of retirement needs". So retirement income strategies should be reframed to answer three questions.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 23-03-17 | Research
  4. The myth of declin-ing living standards

    Contrary to popular belief, western living standards have not declined in recent decades. Rather, government statistics failed to capture a key element of real GPD growth.

    Dr Woody Brock, SED | 22-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  5. Ageing will reshape the global order

    Global ageing will have significant effects over the next few decades as it reduces the economic power and geopolitical influence of developed nations, in turn increasing the risk of social upheaval in the developing world.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 22-03-17 | Opinion
  6. What's a president to do?

    Trump promised a raft of sweeping economic-policy changes - but has quickly discovered that the US political system is designed to prevent rapid, large-scale change. So what will an impatient president do?

    Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley | 20-03-17 | Opinion
  7. Negative gearing is responsible for high property prices?

    A more realistic view of the world is that price appreciation drives negative gearing - not the other way around. Abolish negative gearing and nothing much happens.

    Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 10-03-17 | 7 comments | Opinion
  8. Pain Report - video presentations

    Jonathan Pain, Author of The Pain Report, is a regular key note presenter at PortfolioConstruction Forum's professional development programs. Over the years, he has debuted new investment theses and challenged delegates about how to build better quality investor portfolios...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 08-03-17 | Videos >
  9. farrelly's Investment Strategy (Australia)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation subscriber-only area.

    07-03-17 | 1 comment | Full Story
  10. farrelly's Investment Strategy (NZ)

    Welcome to the farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation NZ subscriber-only area...

    07-03-17 | Full Story
  11. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (Australian Edition)

    The farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook features editorial exploring investment strategy "hot topics", farrelly's long-term forecasts for asset classes, a detailed review of the long-term forecasts for an individual asset class (rotating across asset classes each quarter) and three asset allocation models to assist with implementation...

    07-03-17 | Full Story
  12. farrelly's Dynamic Asset Allocation Handbook (NZ Edition)

    The quarterly Dynamic Asset Allocation is published electronically, and emailed to subscribers in early March, June, September, and December. It features farrelly's Editorial; long-term outlook for markets; Forecast in Focus; and three different approaches to Implementation...

    07-03-17 | Full Story
  13. Rethinking productivity growth

    In thinking about the future of growth, and the opportunities that continued growth will open up for all of humanity, we should reflect on how far we have come.

    J. Bradford DeLong, University of California | 06-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  14. Four fundamental portfolio construction decisions

    Markets Summit 2017 delivered 20+ high conviction ideas on how the winds of change are affecting the outlook for economies and asset classes - and delegates were asked to convert the insights into four fundamental portfolio construction decisions.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 06-03-17 | Opinion
  15. The three Trumps

    What Donald Trump's rise to the US presidency portends requires unraveling three mysteries - because there are three versions of Trump.

    Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University | 02-03-17 | 1 comment | Opinion
  16. Navigating normalisation

    History indicates a reasonably graceful exit from ultra-low interest rates is possible - and that investors can weather the storm with the right strategy. Let's sort out which risks are worth worrying about and which are not.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 01-03-17 | Opinion
  17. The wrong side of maybe fallacy

    Monte Carlo analysis is commonly used to evaluate retirement spending plans - but our cognitive and behavioural biases may interfere with proper interpretation of the results.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 28-02-17 | Research
  18. Low interest rates matter. So do imputation credits

    A recent, widely circulated article suggested the major Australian banks are overpriced. But including the effect of imputation and a view on interest rates makes a huge difference...

    Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 27-02-17 | Opinion
  19. Finology Summit 2017 - The winds of change - key takeouts

    Finology Summit 2017 focused on how "The winds of change" are affecting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better to relate with them. Here are our key takeouts.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 23-02-17 | Key Takeouts
  20. Economic growth and equity market returns

    This paper revisits the relationship between economic growth and equity market returns. Much of the literature has focused on the US so this analysis includes Australia and the UK, too.

    Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | 20-02-17 | 6 comments | Research
  21. Markets Summit 2017 - The winds of change - key takeouts

    Markets Summit 2017 delivered 20+ high conviction ideas on how the winds of change are affecting the outlook for economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios. Here are our key takeouts.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 17-02-17 | Key Takeouts
  22. Empathy is the essential skill to survive

    The key trait for relating to investors in the future will be the one skill that our brains are not programmed to receive from a computer - empathy.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 15-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  23. The winds of change and the 4IR

    Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 15-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  24. The winds have changed

    The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | Resources
  25. Expect turbulent US-China ties to test the region

    US-China relations under President Donald Trump will be turbulent. This will be testing for an economically interdependent region.

    Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  26. Stereotypes and noise obscure good decisions

    Applying discipline, fact and data to the assembly of a portfolio leads to investment opportunities overlooked by many who pursue their 'feelings' rather than data.

    Kerr Neilson, Platinum Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  27. Credit - the epicentre of the next crisis

    Markets have run hard in recent months on speculative exuberance. However, the critical question is will President Trump prove to be a tailwind, or a headwind for the global economy?

    Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | 14-02-17 | Resources
  28. Australian equities portfolios are vulnerable to inflation

    Bond-sensitive stocks now form a record 60% of the ASX's market cap. Australian equity investors should hold a greater proportion in real-asset stocks and reduce exposure to artificially inflated financial stocks.

    Martin Conlon, Schroders | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 1 comment | Resources
  29. Now is the time to accumulate duration

    As 2017 began, there was (once again) an air of optimism that interest rates are about to return to normal. This optimism dismisses the significant structural headwinds that are prevalent.

    Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | Resources
  30. The hunt for yield is over

    Money velocity is accelerating in the US and UK, as commercial banks rediscover their appetite for risk and the two economies continue to normalise. The shift has significant implications for asset allocators.

    Chris Watling, Longview Economics | 14-02-17 | 2 comments | Opinion
  31. Australian government bonds can still provide positive returns

    There is a significant opportunity for actively managed Australian government bonds to continue to provide positive returns, while protecting against the storms of uncertainty.

    Charles Jamieson, Jamieson Coote Bonds | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  32. Winds of change are driving opportunities in Europe and Korea

    Investors should focus on asymmetric opportunities with a margin of safety and multiple ways of winning. Developed Asia and Europe offer these in abundance.

    Jacob Mitchell, Antipodes Partners | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  33. Caveat Emptor

    A large number of small, high conviction positions will lead to better outcomes for portfolios compared to a small number of large, high conviction positions.

    Olivia Engel, State Street Global Advisors | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  34. Rising rates, populism... but infrastructure remains reliable

    For the foreseeable future, earnings of the infrastructure assets asset class, if defined in a disciplined manner, should continue to be reliable.

    Gerald Stack, Magellan Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  35. Bonds are the "walking dead" - time to rotate into loans

    Bond investors have enjoyed a multi-decade bull run in yields, fuelled by unsustainable post-GFC stimulus, but "the times they are a-changing".

    Jeffrey Reemer, Invesco | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  36. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air"

    The biggest portfolio risk in 2017 will be over confidence in assigning scenario probabilities. Don't confuse the winds of change with "hot air" when it comes to portfolio construction.

    Robert Mead, PIMCO | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  37. Panel: The winds of change

    Partners Group's Charles Dallara, Lazard's Ron Temple, and Magellan's Hamish Douglass debate the winds of change sweeping through the global economy and equity markets.

    Panel | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  38. The winds of change are stronger than you think

    Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  39. We are entering a year of nationalism by trial and error

    2017 will be a year of two halves: the first - trial and error, volatility and more setbacks than successes for Trump's economic policies; the second - a shift to less confrontation, more cooperation and a win-win for the US and the world.

    Charles Dallara, Partners Group | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  40. Into the unknown: Ignore left tail risks at your peril

    With Trump, Brexit, Italy's "No" and China's currency woes, the world economy and markets have embarked on a journey into the unknown. Investors should aim for capital preservation until the veil of uncertainty over future policies starts to lift.

    Joachim Fels, PIMCO | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  41. Populist discontent spells danger for markets

    If western governments cannot find a way to reconcile open markets with more stable and evenly distributed income growth, globalisation could begin to reverse with dire implications for risk assets.

    Jeremy Lawson, Standard Life Investments | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  42. Trump the game changer - the only certainty now is uncertainty

    2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as the winds of change sweep through the global economy and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.

    Stephen Halmarick, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | 3 comments | Resources
  43. The economic and geopolitical consequences of Mr Trump

    There is no subject of more importance to investors than what Donald J. Trump will do with the powers of the US presidency. There are pluses and minuses of Trumponomics.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 14-02-17 | 0.50 CE | Resources
  44. The winds of change

    Strong winds of change are blowing - we appear to be entering a new age of populist and economic nationalism. What does it all mean for the outlook for the markets?

    Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 14-02-17 | 0.25 CE | Resources
  45. Why Trump can't bully China

    The US cannot "win" a trade war with China, and any victory will be Pyrrhic - leading to massive price increases in the low-cost stores on which many Americans rely.

    Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | 13-02-17 | Opinion
  46. Backgrounder: 5 Megatrends driving portfolio construction

    In 2002, we embarked on a quest to identify the secular forces which would substantially influence markets over the coming decade. We proposed five megatrends - which still drive portfolio construction today.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 13-02-17 | Backgrounder
  47. Empathy is the essential skill to survive the Robo threat

    With the onward marching of computing power, our transition from being "knowledge workers" to "relationship workers" may be here sooner than we realise.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 10-02-17 | 2 comments | White Paper
  48. The 4th industrial revolution

    We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In the end, it all comes down to people and values.

    Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  49. 2017 key themes and risks

    The biggest event for global financial markets in 2017 is likely to have taken place on 20 January. How the Trump Presidency unfolds will clearly have a significant impact not just on the US but on global markets in 2017 and beyond.

    Stephen Halmarick et al, Colonial First State Global Asset Management | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  50. Loss aversion, "FoMo", anxiety and mistiming

    Four common behavioural problems make the journey of investing particularly challenging for many investors. An understanding of each help investors stay the course and meet their goals.

    Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  51. 2017 Global Outlook

    The three main economies that will largely determine the health of the global economy remain the United States, the euro zone, and China. Each is at a different stage of its economic cycle and faces different challenges.

    Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management | 10-02-17 | Opinion
  52. Research Roundtable International 2016 - key takeouts

    Put 10 senior Australian fund analysts on an eight-day CE program to the west coast of the USA? Inevitably, the group debated their views on many issues.

    Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 02-02-17 | 2 comments | Key Takeouts
  53. Tighter monetary conditions

    The stage is set for an inevitable tightening in monetary conditions. The only questions are how soon, how much and with what consequences.

    Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 01-02-17 | Opinion
  54. An unstable economic order?

    The retreat of advanced economies from the global economy could have far-reaching consequences.

    Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz | 31-01-17 | Opinion
  55. A two-dimensional risk tolerance assessment process

    Beware using risk tolerance assessment tools that blend risk tolerance and risk capacity into a single result. The two need to be measured separately.

    Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 30-01-17 | 2 comments | White paper
  56. Watching the Donald show is fun, but...

    America is living through a kind of Trumpian Genesis - seven days of high-speed political creation. No one yet knows how all this will pan out.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 29-01-17 | Opinion
  57. Does political analysis matter when investing?

    Should we just keep our heads down and treat political events as nothing more than noise? 2017 is going to be a year when politics does matter. In fact, it always has.

    Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 28-01-17 | Opinion
  58. What are senior secured loans and why invest in them?

    Senior secured loans offer a combination of strong current income with relatively low volatility given their defensive position in the capital structure and short duration.

    Invesco | 25-01-17 | White Paper
  59. Misjudge China and Donald will never make America great again

    Like all presidents, Trump will be judged by how far he makes good on his pledges. It is important to distinguish between the real and the imaginary obstacles Trump faces.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 22-01-17 | Opinion
  60. Here's a true Trump nightmare for the liberals

    No doubt the liberal media will wage unrelenting war on Trump, as they did on Nixon nearly half a century ago. But this is not the 1970s.

    Niall Ferguson, The Hoover Institution | 15-01-17 | Opinion