As it always does, the holiday season produced what seemed to be a never-ending stream of opinions, predictions, forecasts, and scenarios about what might happen in economies and markets in 2024.

Will there be a “soft” or “hard” landing? When might we get the first rate cut? How many rate cuts might follow? Will inflation continue to moderate, or remain “sticky”? Are equities now expensive after their stellar performance in 2023, especially in the US and Japan? Or will the rally continue?

Important questions, no doubt. But to my mind there was a strong undercurrent of samen...