Geopolitics and the consequences of choice

The gravest geopolitical challenge is not terrorism, or the Middle East, or Brexit, but a possible eruption between China and the US, the world's two largest economies and militaries. It is always when the most powerful countries clash that the world is altered fundamentally.

Stephen Kotkin, Princeton University Opinion


Backgrounder: The long and short of it

Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

PortfolioConstruction Forum White Paper


Changing our legacy for the better

The financial system we bequeath is unstable, un-trusted and built on inappropriate theory with mis-aligned incentives.

Prof Jack Gray, UTS0.50 CE Resources


The limits of Monte Carlo analysis

Predicting the future raises a significant number of issues when creating an investment plan. Monte Carlo simulations will illuminate the nature of that uncertainty, but only if those using them understand how it should be applied – and its limitations.

David Blanchett, Morningstar & Wade Pfau, The American College Opinion


Desperate central bankers in denial

The lack of response at the zero bound of policy interest rates is hardly surprising. In fact, it is strikingly reminiscent of the so-called liquidity trap of the 1930s. What is particularly disconcerting is that central bankers remain largely in denial.

Stephen Roach, Yale University Opinion


Re-activating fiscal policy

Central banks have been driven to adopt increasingly unconventional monetary policies - yet most economies are far from where they need to be. We should begin activating fiscal policy now.

Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics Opinion


Geopolitical risk? Ignore terrorism, focus on East Asia

Geopolitical tensions between China, the US, and countries of South East Asia are growing. Most investors dismiss the region as a risk. But we are at a precipice of a left-tail risk event.

Marko Papic, BCA Research0.25 CE Resources


Tracking error cause short termism

Tracking error constraints on active management focus on short-term outcomes and don’t align with most investor goals, which are longer term. So how else can portfolios be designed?

Olivia Engel, State Street Global Advisors0.50 CE Resources


Headlines battle facts, but fundamentals will prevail

As an investor, allowing yourself to be distracted by quick interpretation of market dynamics will lead to poor allocation decisions. Ultimately, fundamentals will win out for long-term investors.

James Swanson, MFS Investment Management0.50 CE Resources


Unfavourable candidates can be favourable for the US economy

There has never been a more divisive US election season than the one we are witnessing right now. While the rhetoric and opinion polls are captivating on a weekly basis, the long game is what matters.

Libby Cantrill, PIMCO0.50 CE Resources


Infrastructure provides reliable earning irrespective of crises

Provided investors define infrastructure in a disciplined manner, investment in infrastructure will continue to deliver investors reliable earnings over time.

Gerald Stack, Magellan Asset Management0.50 CE Resources