The global recovery's downside risks

In the next year, a more robust and persistent global recovery will depend largely on whether policymakers avoid mistakes that could derail it.

Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics Opinion

Daring to be different - the benefits of contrarian investing

Literature from a variety of disciplines help highlight the qualities behind truly creative, contrarian thinking - qualities which can be applied to modern portfolio management.

Stephen Anness & Andy Hall, Invesco Perpetual White Paper

Capping QE

Fed officials must take the long view and hence tend to believe they can engineer a graceful exit. Their plan is somewhat akin to 'cap and trade' schemes for weaning the world of pollutants.

Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers Opinion

Research review: Quality and momentum investing

Unlike other commonly used factors, very little research has been undertaken on the quality factor - which makes a newly released paper very interesting. Another new paper extends the usual momentum factor into "returns signal momentum".

Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney1.00 CE Review

Into the unknown: Ignore left tail risks at your peril

With Trump, Brexit, Italy's "No" and China's currency woes, the world economy and markets have embarked on a journey into the unknown. Investors should aim for capital preservation until the veil of uncertainty over future policies starts to lift.

Joachim Fels, PIMCO0.25 CE Resources

Revealing a client's true preferences

Game theory, econometrics and distributed computing power can reveal a client's true preferences for risk, loss, uncertainty, time and goals – with scientific precision and in terms that clients can understand.

Shachar Kariv, University of California, Berkeley0.50 CE Opinion

The Hunger Bonds

Investing often creates moral dilemmas over goals. Should decent people put their money in emerging-market bond funds?

Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard Kennedy School Opinion

Siegel v Shiller on equity valuations

Wharton's Jeremy Siegel and Yale's Robert Shiller squared off in a recent presentation about the outlook for equity returns.

Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives Opinion

Beware expensive factors

Investors should keep a close eye on relative valuations. Recent data suggests that momentum and value are trading cheaply in many markets, with low beta substantially over-priced.

Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates Opinion

The upside of less downside

When equity markets fall, the financial and emotional impacts can be lasting. By focusing on reducing downside, investors can have a smoother ride and still achieve the returns they seek.

Roy Maslen & Hamish Fitzsimons, AB Global White Paper

What ratings agencies are really good at

After the ratings failures of CDOs and other complex instruments in the GFC, many dismiss the work of the ratings agencies. But far from being hopeless, they do a wonderful job of assessing companies.

Tim Farrelly, farrelly's 1 commentOpinion

Rethinking the Next China

China is upping the ante on its connection to an increasingly integrated world, running against the grain of the populist anti-globalisation backlash that is brewing in many developed countries.

Stephen Roach, Yale University Opinion

Forum Fodder 09 Jun 2017

Fodder starts with Nouriel Roubini arguing that Trump's policies are a key risk to the nascent global pick up in economic activity. Dr Bob Gay explains why Fed officials believe they can engineer a graceful exit from their experiment with asset purchases. Invesco's Stephen Anness and Andy Hall have written a terrific paper on the art of contrarian thinking of all types. Prof Ron Bird reviews two new papers on factor investing And finally, we feature the top-10 rated presentation by PIMCO's Joachim Fels at Markets Summit 2017.

Graham Rich, Publisher, PortfolioConstruction Forum Forum Fodder

Mark your diary - 2017

2017

22 Jun - Masterclass NZ (Akl)
31 Jul - 04 Aug - IMAC (Syd)
23-24 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
28/29 Sep - IMR Program Conference (Syd)
02 Oct - IMR Program Symposium (Akl)
14-21 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (UK)
2018
13 Feb - Markets Summit
14 Feb - Finology Summit
08 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Bne)
13 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Mel)
15 Mar - farrelly's User Group (Syd)
28 Jun - Masterclass NZ (Akl)
22-23 Aug - Strategies Conference (Syd)
27/28 Sep - IMR Program Conference (Syd)
01 Oct - IMR Program Symposium (Akl)
13-20 Oct - Research Roundtable Intl (US)

More

2017 Markets Summit - Webcast

Markets Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on the opportunities and risks ahead as the winds of change sweep through economies and asset classes - and the implications for portfolios.

Resources

2017 Finology Summit - Resources Kit

Finology Summit 2017 featured a stellar lineup of finology experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis on how the winds of change are impacting how investors think and behave with respect to money, and how we can better relate with them (and help others who must do so).

Resources

2016 Markets Summit - Resources Kit

Markets Summit 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the Markets Summit theme - is it deja vu (all over again)? - and the resulting portfolio construction decision(s) that must be made.

Resources

Backgrounder: Cyclical? Structural? Secular?

This Backgrounder defines the terms "cyclical", "structural"" and "secular" and provides examples, in order to increase the clarity of debate about what's really driving markets.

PortfolioConstruction Forum White Paper

2016 Conference - Webcast

Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.

Resources

Conference 2015: the director’s cut

PortfolioConstruction Forum Strategies Conference 2015 featured a carefully selected faculty of more than 35 international and local portfolio construction experts offering their best high conviction ideas about critical portfolio "crossroads". Here are the highlights.

Resources

Backgrounder: The long and short of it

Managing the fundamental friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives is a key challenge when building portfolios. This Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and debates.

PortfolioConstruction Forum White Paper