Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 09 February 2024

“I view the markets as fundamentally broken… Value is just not a consideration for most investment money that’s out there. There’s all the machine money, and algorithmic money which doesn’t have an opinion about value. It has an opinion about price.” - US hedge fund manager, David Einhorn (09 February 2024)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham
P.S. Be on the lookout! - Enrolment opens Monday for the 2024 CIMA certification program, the peak, international technical portfolio construction certification program designed for investment management analysts. Stand for more in '24!

Markets

Markets Summit 2024 “History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes!”
AEDT 8.30am-5.45pm Wednesday 21 February 2024
Markets Summit 2024 will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and help you build better quality investor portfolios.
When it comes to what’s driving investment markets today, parallels are often drawn with prior eras. Some commentators liken today to the 1910s when geopolitical tensions curtailed globalisation and led to WW1. Others point to sticky inflation and “hot fronts” in a Cold War between democracies and autocracies as signs that the current environment is closer to that of the 1970s. Neither is a perfect analogy. Relative to the USSR in its heyday, today China arguably poses a greater challenge to the US-led order, given China’s extensive global economic entanglement and its progress in building an anti-western coalition. And current supply chain complexity, public and private debt, and advancements in artificial intelligence are all unprecedented.
Those who ignore the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them. By distinguishing helpful precedents from false echoes, we can better understand what lies ahead for economies and therefore investment markets, and reorientate portfolios accordingly. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes!
Live studio, live site, or live stream | 7+ CE | Register now!

Markets

Where will the global economy land in 2024?
Around this time a year ago, about 85% of economists and market analysts (including me) expected the US and global economy would suffer a recession. But the opposite mostly happened. One must approach any 2024 forecast with humility.
Nouriel Roubini, New York University & Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Strategies

Bird’s Eye View: The asset allocation myth
I was amazed several years ago to learn that the class I was teching believed that 90% of a fund’s returns are due to asset allocation. Having once been a major promoter of this myth, it is important I contribute to its eradication.
Ron Bird, ANU & Portfolio Construction Forum | Read

Strategies | Markets

Thinking Differently: When reality strikes back
Is there, as many predict, another financial crisis looming? The history of financial crises suggests that the preconditions are present. But this has been the case a few times since 2008. What is the reality?
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Finology

Research Review: An economics lens on ‘attention’
This paper provides a comprehensive review of the psychology of attention and its relationship to key economic concepts (utility, risk-taking, social preferences, and learning), and the emerging role of AI in the modern economy.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read

Investing

Design and Distribution Obligations (DDO) Report 762: Investment products
This report summarises the key observations from ASIC’s review of how issuers of investment products are meeting design and distribution obligations and areas for improvement.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.00 CE | Read

Finology | Philosophy

On The Hunt: Ethical behaviour profiling
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Katherine Hunt, Ardentura Consulting | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Read, Watch

Finology | Philosophy

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

The growing risk of global disorder
The Western-led global economic order has had a bad 2023. Surprisingly, the primary cause was not the emergence of an alternative order led by China, as some had anticipated.
Mohamed El-Erian | Read

Strategies | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, embrace scenario planning
The primary criticism directed at those who think about the future is that it’s an act of futility. But thinking about how the future may unfold has proven to be a useful way to make decisions amidst radical uncertainty.
Vikram Mansharamani, Visting Fellow | 0.25 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

Markets

Investing and prospering in a new economic regime - it really IS different this time
At this year’s FAAA Congress, we asked an expert panel about the implications of a VUCA investment climate for the construction of multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios and for investment conversations with clients.
Portfolio Construction Forum | Read

Markets | Philosophy

Q&A: Outperforming markets given history rhymes not repeats
The fact that structural changes do exist and that historical data are often of limited relevance presents a major opportunity for investors seeking to outperform others.
Woody Brock, SED | Listen, Watch

Markets

Thinking Differently: Solving the puzzle
Very thought provoking… This article has prompted me to further research balance sheets and accumulated wealth.
Mark Hayden, Hayden Bourne Financial Services | Read

Markets

Higher interest rates are here to stay
It is past time to revisit the widely prevailing “free lunch” view of government debt. With a few notable exceptions, those who championed the notion have not acknowledged the likelihood of a new reality.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Investing

Crockpot: A picture paints a thousand words
Different ways of presenting an identical set of data lead to very different insights into a fund’s performance. Using an arithmetic graph is by far the easiest to understand - and it can also be the most deceptive.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Markets

Thinking Differently: Solving the puzzle
In the wake of the most rapid and material rise in global interest rates for 50 years, we could be forgiven for scratching our heads at what has happened over 2023. Has monetary policy lost its mojo? Or has 2023 been a “head fake”?
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, tap into the Au small cap alpha opportunity
Small Caps have underperformed large cap peers in recent times however cyclical factors today and a rebound in domestic risk sets up for the reemergence in Australian Smalls.
David Aylward, Tribeca Investment Partners | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Investing | Finology

Research Review: Investor warm glow optimisation
This paper provides a penetrating view into some of the motivational dynamics in play for individual investors who select sustainability-related investments, and implications for financial intermediaries who manufacture and sell such products.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

Investing | Philosophy

Research Review: A closer look at value investing
Less efficient information markets in the past facilitated scope to identify mis-valued stocks that enabled return outperformance…
Mark Brennan, World Bank Group | Read

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